“Will Women Soon Outrun Men?” was the title of the letter published in the prestigious “Scientific Correspondence”
section of the January 2, 1992 issue of the journal Nature. The letter was submitted by Drs. Brian Whipp
and Susan Ward of the UCLA School of Medicine, who, based on observations of world record track times from early
1900s to 1992, boldly concluded that “...unless the progression rate of men’s records increases relative to that
of women, then [the mean velocity] for these events will be no different for men and women within the first half
of the twenty-first century... Beyond that time, current progression rates imply superior performance by women.
The projected intersection for the marathon is 1998.”
The following are some amusing insights provided by Randall Woods, a physics instructor at the British
Columbia Institute of Technology in Canada, regarding the daring claim by Whipp and Ward and their questionable
statistical analysis.
According to Woods, Whipp and Ward used the world record track times (the mean running velocity in meters/
minute) for men and women from beginning of the century to 1992 for the 200, 400, 800, 1500, 5000, and 10000
meter events, as well as the marathon. In short, they graphed the observed data and compared the slopes. They
noted that the rate of increase for women runners was greater than that for men, most notably in the marathon.
Next they extrapolated the results into the future and forecasted that women marathon runners would overtake men
in 1998!
To illustrate the absurdity resulting from such a naïve statistical analysis, Woods used the same technique
and compared the data from the men’s 100 meter race (taken from The Fastest Men on Earth by Duncanson) and the
women’s marathon (taken from Human Kinetics by Sandrock). Applying a simple linear regression, he calculated the
slope and the x- and y-intercept values, the interpretation of which provided some fascinating results:
- In 0 AD, men could run the 100 meter dash backwards at a mean speed of –430 m/min. This corresponds to 14
seconds, and though I am not an avid football fan, the last World Cup suggests to me that England would have no
trouble with this today.
- Women marathoners, however, were backpedaling at a blistering –8800 m/min. This corresponds to a little
under 150 m/s, rather less than a .22 cal rim-fire bullet, but nevertheless quite respectable.
- In 820 AD male runners were stationary. Perhaps this accounts for the Viking’s success with their longships.
- Women marathoners, interestingly, were stationary as recently as 1921. The introduction of flapper skirts in
the Roaring Twenties evidently contributed to increased mobility.
Returning to the analysis presented by Whipp and Ward, Woods comes to the following conclusions:
- Year 2064 – Women marathon runners outrun men 100m sprinters.
Inspection of the graph presented in Whipp and Ward's paper shows that in any specific event women will be
outpacing men by 2050 AD or so. After 2064 women marathoner's mean running speeds will exceed men's mean speed at
any event including the 100m dash.
- Year 2095 – Women marathon runners outrun women 200m sprinters.
Given that mean speed differences between the 100m and 200m events are mostly due to the relatively greater
importance of the first few strides in the former event, this means that past this date the fastest humans will
be women marathoners as even women sprinters will have lower mean speeds. Thus, the best strategy for a women
track competitor at, say, the 100 meter dash is to continue on past the finish line for an entire marathon.
Interestingly, the results will not be known until she finishes the full distance. If she fails to do this,
due to an ankle sprain for instance, she may lose the race even though observers agree that she had passed the
finish line before her competitors. There are echoes of this phenomenon in modern physics related to the problem
commonly associated with the phrase “Schroedinger's Cat.” This strategy may also come in useful during shopping
events such as the “Tickle-Me-Elmo” sprint.
- Year 2271 – Women marathon runners outrun the fastest land animal.
The Guiness Book of World Records gives the probable maximum speed of the cheetah or hunting leopard (Acinonyx
jubatus) as 60 mph, which comes to about 1600 m/min. In two and a half centuries, it will have some competition
for the honor of fastest land animal.
- Year 6419 – Women marathon runners reach the speed of sound (and current land-speed record).
At 20oC the speed of sound is about 344 m/s (20600 m/min). Although 6400 AD seems a long time from now, it is
comparable to the Ancient Egyptians looking forward to our time - not a great span of time in the overall scheme
of things. The aerodynamics of runners exceeding the speed of sound is interesting given that their feet must
repeatedly accelerate from rest, exceed the speed of sound and then stop, making for a rapid series of sonic
booms.
- Year 103,700 – Women marathon runners achieve low earth orbit.
A satellite in low earth orbit travels at about 475,000 m/min, which women marathoners will reach in about
another 100 millennia or so. One practical implication of this is that tracks will have to be built on ceilings
following the earth's curvature to prevent liftoff and innovative starting postures will have to be developed.
NASA could profit by reducing satellite payloads to the size of a relay baton.
- Year 3.9 Gy AD – Women marathon runners approach relativistic velocities
This date is found by simply extrapolating the mean speed to the speed of light; obviously relativistic effects
will become noticeable well before this time. Also note that the sun will not yet have shuffled off the main
sequence in the Hertzprung-Russel diagram. Reaching relativistic speeds will cause problems involving the
definition of simultaneity in different reference frames; as observers in different inertial reference frames
may disagree as to who passed the finish line first, this will have to be addressed by the governing bodies.
Today, two years after the predicted date of intersection, according to runnersworld.com the men’s marathon
record is 2:05:42 (Oct. 99), while the women’s record is 2:20:43 (Sept 99). Of course, Whipp and Ward may simply
have gotten the year wrong. It may be a whole different story at the next Olympics.
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