Words Get In The Way
Where is the line between "many" and "not many?" According to the New York Times it lies somewhere
between 36 and 40 percent. The following is an excerpt from an article reporting the results of a
recent New York Times/CBS News poll that appeared on the front page of the newspaper’s March 14th
edition.
"…Still, Mr. Cheney's heart problems are a worry for many Americans. Four out of 10 say his
recent procedure and history of heart disease make them concerned about his ability to serve
effectively, and only 36 percent are fully confident that he will complete his four-year term."
This is a classic example of a technique used by many journalists to spin poll results.
Journalists often qualify numbers with words such as "many," "fully," and "only" to emphasize or
de-emphasize the significance of the numbers being reported. In the above statement, the "four out
of 10" (or 40%) is preceded by the phrase "many Americans" to infer that a significant number of
Americans are concerned about the issue, while the figure 36% is preceded by the word "only" to
infer a lack of support. In reality, of course, there is "only" a difference of 4% (or fully 4%,
which ever you prefer).
Another common technique used in spinning poll results is to misrepresent the results
altogether, assuming that readers will never see the actual numbers. The leading paragraph of the
Times article stated, "…but Americans are increasingly nervous about the economy and express
concerns about Mr. Bush's ability to steer the nation to sustained prosperity…" The actual
questions and responses relating to this statement read as follows:
How about the economy? Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling
the economy?
Approve – 55%
Disapprove – 28%
DK/NA – 17%
How much confidence do you have in George W. Bush’s ability to keep the nation’s economy
strong – a lot, some, not much or none at all?
A Lot – 34%
Some – 36%
Not Much – 20%
None at all – 8%
DK/NA – 2%
According to the actual figures, it appears that 55% approve of the way the President is handling
the economy and 70% have some or a lot of confidence in his ability to keep the economy strong.
Poll reporters also have a habit of ignoring the margin of error. For example, with regard to
Social Security, the Times article reported: "The public continues to see the Democrats as more
able to lead on issues they care about, like Social Security (46 percent, compared with 38 percent
for the Republicans)." Given the 4% margin of error underlying the survey, such comparisons are
at best misleading if not entirely meaningless.
As with love, when it comes to statistics, words often get in the way.
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